Updated October 13, 2026
Quick Answer
Third-quarter earnings season starts today, October 13, 2026, when JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley following on October 14. According to a Reuters preview as summarized by AiCoin, large-bank profits could rise by as much as about 20% from a year earlier, yet the KBW Bank Index sits roughly 13% below its August closing high. The question for investors is not whether the quarter was good, but whether net interest income, capital markets fees and credit quality can hold up after the Fed’s September rate hike and with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.
What the Calendar Looks Like
- Tuesday, October 13: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo has said to expect results around 7 a.m. Eastern, with its call at 10 a.m.
- Wednesday, October 14: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley (BlackRock is also scheduled that day).
- October 27-28: The Federal Open Market Committee meets, the next big macro catalyst after earnings week.
Because these banks touch almost every part of the economy, from consumer cards to corporate deal-making, their commentary often gets read as an early look at how the rest of earnings season could go.
The Consensus Numbers
As cited in the Reuters/LSEG preview (data as of October 7), analysts expected the following third-quarter earnings per share:
- JPMorgan: $5.94, versus $5.07 a year earlier.
- Wells Fargo: $1.85, versus $1.66.
- Citigroup: $2.41, versus $2.24.
- Goldman Sachs: we could not verify a consensus figure in the sources we reviewed, so none is shown here.
Estimates move right up to the print, so check a live source before relying on any of these figures.
Why Strong Profits Haven’t Meant Strong Stocks
The odd feature of this setup is the gap between expected profits and share prices. The KBW Bank Index fell about 6% in the third quarter and was roughly 13% below its August high as of the preview, with rising yields blamed for much of the weakness. Reuters-reported IPOs, including those of Oura and SB Energy, were postponed because of the jump in yields, a reminder that higher rates can slow capital-markets activity even as they help lending margins.
On October 7 the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.28% and the two-year was 4.77%, per Federal Reserve H.15 data cited in the preview, which implies a term spread of about 51 basis points. UBS analyst Erika Najarian said investors want evidence that the capital markets pipeline is robust, loan growth is on track and deposit-cost increases are “manageable.” Those three items are a useful checklist for today.
For background on how we got here, see our coverage of the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023. The September 16 decision was a 12-0 vote that lifted the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00%.
Five Things to Watch
1. Net interest income and deposit costs
Higher rates can widen the spread banks earn on loans, but deposit costs tend to catch up with a lag. Wells Fargo CFO Mike Santomassimo said earlier that third-quarter net interest margin would be better than previously expected and that 2026 loan growth would exceed mid-single digits. The FDIC reported the industry-wide net interest margin rose 1 basis point to 3.32% in the second quarter. The September hike landed late in the quarter, so the more telling signal is the fourth-quarter guidance, not the third-quarter figure.
2. Investment banking and trading
Management guidance given at a September conference was mixed. JPMorgan said it expected mid-to-high teens percentage growth in both investment banking fees and trading income year over year. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned of at least a 10% decline in investment banking fees, with sales and trading roughly flat. Goldman CEO David Solomon described the quarter as relatively flat, with weak fixed income and strong equities. Morgan Stanley said its pipelines remain abundant.
The deal backdrop is similarly uneven. LSEG data cited by Reuters shows global M&A up 28% to $3.9 trillion in the first nine months of the year, but deal count down 8% and third-quarter M&A down 41% to $993 billion. In other words, activity has been concentrated in a few very large transactions.
3. Credit quality
The consumer picture has been steady. The Fed’s all-bank credit card default rate was 2.85% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.91% in the first quarter and 3.04% a year earlier, and it has fallen for eight straight quarters. The New York Fed’s second-quarter report put credit card balances at $1.263 trillion, up $21 billion from the prior quarter. Watch provisions for credit losses: any increase would suggest banks see risk that the data does not yet show.
4. Capital returns and buybacks
Banks are among the largest repurchasers of their own stock. Citigroup’s CFO said the 2026 buyback will exceed the $13 billion repurchased in 2025, and that the full-year return on tangible common equity should slightly exceed the 11% target. The Fed’s June stress test found all 32 banks tested remained above minimum CET1 requirements under the severely adverse scenario. For more on why record repurchases matter, read our piece on S&P 500 buybacks and the excise tax debate.
5. Tone on the economy
Executives usually offer a view on consumers, businesses and inflation. With the economy growing slowly (see our look at second-quarter GDP slowing to 1.5%) and the Fed leaning hawkish, cautious language from CEOs could weigh on the whole market, even if the quarter itself is clean.
How Investors Might Read the Results
- Beat and raise guidance: Often supportive, especially for a beaten-down bank index, but a beat that is already priced in may not lift shares.
- Beat on trading, miss on fees: Suggests strength is tied to market volatility rather than durable deal flow.
- Rising provisions: A signal worth taking seriously even if headline earnings look strong.
- Soft fourth-quarter margin outlook: Could matter more than the third-quarter result, as deposit costs catch up.
Remember that a single day of bank results will not settle the larger debate over yields, inflation and the Fed. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting is the next major test.
Frequently Asked Questions
When do the big banks report third-quarter earnings?
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on October 13, 2026. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on October 14.
Why are bank stocks down if profits are expected to rise?
Per the Reuters preview as summarized by AiCoin, the decline has been tied mainly to rising Treasury yields and uncertainty about capital markets activity and deposit costs, not to the expected third-quarter profit figures themselves.
What is the current federal funds target range?
After the September 16 hike, the target range is 3.75-4.00%. The next FOMC meeting is October 27-28.
Do higher rates help or hurt banks?
Both. Higher rates can lift lending margins, but they can also raise deposit costs, slow deal-making and pressure the value of bond holdings.
Are these results a preview for the whole market?
They are an early read on credit, consumer health and deal activity, but banks are one sector. Other industries report on different drivers.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Earnings results and estimates change quickly, and investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Consult a licensed financial adviser before making decisions.
Sources: AiCoin summary of Reuters/LSEG bank earnings preview (October 2026); Federal Reserve H.15 and credit card default data as cited therein; New York Fed Household Debt report (Q2 2026) and FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile as cited therein; Capital and Compute coverage of the September 16, 2026 FOMC decision. Figures were not independently verified against primary filings, and company results published after this update may differ.
